Denial & Deception – week 6
Select one of the Questions to Ponder as the topic for this week’s forum posting. Please select just one Question and do a thorough job on it.
Questions to Ponder
- What are some of the situations or occurrence that should lead me to suspect that Denial and Deception are being employed against me?
- When should evidence of Denial and Deception be sought?
- Is it possible to be completely certain of action before it occurs?
- What are the “cry wolf syndrome” and the “paradox of warning”, and how do they play into the defense against, and the detection of Denial and Deception?
- What are the steps in the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and how is this analysis conducted?
Instructions: Your initial post should be at least 250-500 words in length (not including references listed at the end). Please respond to at least 2 other students and one follow up question. Responses should be a minimum of 150 words in length and include references to the material.
Reading & Resources:
Heuer, Richards J. Jr. 1999. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence Ch. 2, Ch. 4-8, scan remainder.
Joint Publication 3-13.4. 2006. “Military Deception.” Accessed March 12, 2014. https://cyberwar.nl/d/jp3_13_4.pdf Exec Summary, Ch. 2 and Ch. 5
Student Response #1 – Harshul
What are the “cry wolf syndrome” and the “paradox of warning”, and how do they play into the defense against, and the detection of Denial and Deception?
The “cry wolf syndrome” is a “…false alert, and particularly a series of them, breeds skepticism or downright disbelief of the authentic warning when it is in fact received” (Grabo 2007, 82). The role it plays into the defense against and the detection of Denial and Deception is by and large negative. The lesson from Aesop’s tale of the boy who cried wolf is applicable here as well, but with potentially dangerous consequences. By “crying wolf” too many times in regards to terrorism or foreign intelligence organizations one can contribute to diminishing the overall sense of urgency of the team. Furthermore by sullying ones own credibility, when a real threats emerges the warning is likely to receive less attention and can result in a security breach or an attack.
The “paradox of warning” is defined as “enemy counteraction based on action taken as a result of a warning that alters the enemy’s initially intended course of action. The warning thus appears to be wrong on the basis of the change in enemy action” (Physics 911 2014, np). The role this plays into the defense against and the detection of Denial and Deception can also be negative. The one aspect that confirms its counterproductive nature within this cycle of action and reaction among forces is preemptive activity by ones own forces or friendly forces. By reacting to mere indications or even conclusive evidence of the adversaries intentions, the enemy is allowed an opportunity to reassess and alter his strategy.
1. Grabo, Cythia, M. 2007. Strategic Warning: The problem of Timing. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol16no2/pdf/v16i2a07p.pdf (accessed October 24, 2014)
2. Physics 911. 2014. Scientific Panel Investigating the Events of September 11, 2001. http://physics911.net/intelligence-terminology-dictionary-part-two-f-z/ (accessed October 24, 2014)
Student Response #2 – Bobby
What are some of the situations or occurrence that should lead me to suspect that Denial and Deception are being employed against me?
According to Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, suggests that analyst often reject the possibility of deception because they see no evidence of it (Heuer 1999, 98). If deception is done correctly, it will go virtually undetected and could show the false of what the enemy is trying to accomplish. In order to prevent the denial and deception Heuer explains the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is a tool for an analyst to use so they do not get complacent. It provides an 8-step process that requires careful weighing of alternate explanations or conclusions. The analyst must use a weighted system against each hypothesis that can reduce the amount of misleading information that can be a denial and deception campaign started from the enemy.
So now that a basic understanding of ACH can help analyst offset their chance of a denial and deception campaign, considerations needs to be given to the enemy’s capabilities. The analyst must have a deep knowledge and understanding of not only the capabilities but also how they typically employ them. One thing that needs to be done is complete removal of all biases associated to the situation because it can have grave consequences if an analyst has a stake in it. What I mean by this is, when an analyst feels like it is his entire baby and that he has been working on the problem for so long, that he is not open to other ideas.
Another way that may prevent our adversary from utilizing D&D would be putting together a red cell analysis on the country in question. This would provide the best analysis of the enemies capabilities as well as providing subject matter experts looking at the way the enemy would fight against us. If done correctly, would provide an understanding and modeling of an enemy that would improve analysis.
One way to that should help in determining you are suspect to D&D is by applying critical thinking to the situation. Employment of critical thinking in the process can mitigate the effects of a person’s mindset and biases by utilizing skillful analysis of evidence for and against an issue according to Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Moore 2007, 50). Understanding the intelligence coming in and questioning the information is essential because sources can be unreliable, D&D efforts can distort information, and this can create uncertainty. Using authenticity, accuracy, and reliability can help in establishing a common baseline of evidence that can be used in the analysis. The analyst should always consider, are you being deceived and then identify ways to provide alternate viewpoints to minimize the risk.
An analyst can employ numerous techniques, if they suspect a D&D campaign employed against them. The main area of concern is for the analyst to identify it and always be asking themselves are you being deceived. In today’s technologically advanced world, a multi-intelligence approach to a problem will be best utilized. If done correctly, it could help in reducing the chances of having a D&D campaign against you and will provide policy makers the intelligence needed for them to form policies.
Heuer, Richards J. Jr. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Washington: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.
Moore, David T. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. Washington: National Defense Intelligence College, 2007.
OSINT – week 6
For this forum, you are to answer one of the questions listed below. The original post must be a minimum of 250 words. Additionally, you must post two (2) peer reviews on a classmate’s original post. Please be courteous and succinct in your response. The goal is to extend the conversation through your observations and experience.
How are new technologies affecting OSINT collection and analysis?
What potential vulnerabilities does a social media network present?
Define Social Media Intelligence. Give examples
What potential affect does social media intelligence present regarding non state actors? Give examples to support your assertion.
Instructions: Your initial post should be at least 250 words. Please respond to at least 2 other students. Responses should be a minimum of 200 words each and include direct questions.
Reading & Resources:
- Open Source Intelligence and Social Media
- Introducing Social Media Intelligence
- Social Media: Valuable Tools in Today’s Operational Environment
- Using Google to track Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations by Coscia and Rios
Student Response #1 – Dwayne
Define Social Media Intelligence. Give examples:
Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) is the process and searching for, identifying and extracting social media content that presents indicators of security threats. SOCMINT use in domestic intelligence may also help police agencies and criminal investigators to gauge the civilian climate in their areas of responsibility. The current trend, particularly in the UK, is to develop capabilities that increase police cyber awareness, their influence through cyber means, and methods to monitor social media, also known as crowd sourcing.
The value of SOCMINT has been noted by authorities, which has in turn spurred spending on increasing their capabilities. Ormand says that “Underlying these developments is significant planned public investment in the capabilities that will allow the authorities to continue to access communications data and access under warrant where necessary the content of internet communications including social media” (Ormand, 2012, 802).
With the exponential increase in social media activity, authorities have a responsibility to adapt and act accordingly. In fact, with many outlandish social media posts prior to acts of violence, it would almost be criminal for authorities not to act. Public health experts suggest that they are able to detect and identify pandemics through social media. As well, psychologists believe Facebook may portray an accurate representation of an individuals mental health through indicative content.
With the amount of information that people post about themselves in the public forum, it stands to reason that it can and should be exploited by officials with a responsibility for public safety. Public information falls under one of the seven exemptions for the warrantless search – open view, and its use should be no cause for public concern.
Ormand, D. Introducing Social Media Intelligence (SOCMNT). 2012. Intelligence and National Security, 27:6, 801-823. Retrieved from https://edge.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL%20422/Content/Week%206/Introducing%20Social%20Media%20Intelligence.pdf
Student Response #2 – Alyssa
What potential vulnerabilities does a social network present?
Social media has always seemed like such an innocent way to keep in touch with family and friends when there is a substantial distance; something that has made being half way across the world bearable at times. But with the expansion of the internet around the world and the access associated with it, it also allows the adversary an insight into our own personal information. “On Facebook alone, 250 million photos are added per day, as are 200 million tweets on Twitter. There are four billion video views per day on YouTube1.” These are just a few of the social networks alone that grant our own personal information to the world. Though it may seem harmless it could be used negatively if needed.
By posting your information, such as checking into your favorite restaurants, where you work, who you’re with on a constant basis, it provides the adversary with information about your schedule and whereabouts. If collected over time they could have a timeline of where you will be and when allowing for your home to be burglarized, physical harm to you, or more. Social media can be used in the case of sharing your experiences with those close to you but it must be done with caution.
Today, many social media sites allow for heightened privacy settings to protect your information. Although it is not 100% protected, it can save a lot of trouble in the long run. Obviously if your profiles are private but you still allows whomever requests to follow you to do so, what information are you protecting? If used appropriately, social media can be used for its sole intention of connecting you to friends and family and the outside world, but at your own discretion. I think many people these days are becoming more aware of the threats posed by social media and are taking the precautions to protect their information. For my own safety, for example, I have hidden my friends list, any family relations, relationships, and all personal information (birthday, hometown, high school, etc) in order to protect anyone close to me just to be safe. I use my social media to keep in contact with those I am away from and it is for my benefit alone. If social media is used with precaution it can eliminate the vulnerabilities associated with it such as exposing your personal information, friends and families information, etc. Anything can be a good thing if used properly.
 Sir David Omand , Jamie Bartlett & Carl Miller (2012): Introducing Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT), Intelligence and National Security, 27:6, 803.